Happy new year; or, welcome to the last year we all have to “escape the permanent underclass!”
The sentiment here, of course, is that since intelligence is becoming cheaper and cheaper, AI will only continue to outcompete humans. Further, there will be an inflection point after which it is no longer viable for most to earn a living in knowledge work. Is this what our future holds? For now, the answer seems a bit moot. What actually matters I think is how many people, particularly young strivers (i.e., the so-called "precariat"), perceive the sentiment to be true.
If you couple the belief in a declining availability of high-paying desk jobs with the very Gen Z/Millennial belief that asset ownership (and more broadly, “the good life” promised on TikTok/Reels) will forever be financially out of reach, many will logically reach the conclusion that they have nothing to lose and everything to gain. What does this do to the mass psyche? Abroad, youth-led protests have occurred in Bangladesh, Nepal, Indonesia, Morocco, Peru, the Philippines, Italy, Cameroon, Madagascar, East Timor, Bulgaria, and Mexico since 2020. Domestically, the discontent has manifested as a rise in app-based sports betting, prediction markets, an—to the lament of managers—quiet quitting at work. It is no longer worth it to climb the corporate ladder when you can buy the right shitcoin tomorrow and never need to work again.
With no stake in the future and heightened collective risk appetite, young strivers have little incentive to do the often-mundane work of maintaining civilization. Even if they so desired, many have eschewed traditional corporate ladders and no longer participate in the social organizations that forged the excellent managers of yesteryear. Frankly, I do not see the incentives here changing rapidly enough to both inspire and equip a majority of young American strivers to choose maintenance over striving (maybe 250th anniversary patriotism will help).
I think the only way that we get around this inadequate equilibrium is the creation of a selective youth leadership training program. It has to be prestigious enough to attract the best minds to maintenance/organizational science, which is tricky since it’s inherently unsexy. Would like to iterate on these initial thoughts at some point down the road.